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<Research>HSBC Research Foresees MO 2025 GGR to Hike 6% YoY, Prefers MGM CHINA & GALAXY ENT
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Macau is predicted to post a persistent growth in GGR in 2025, on the back of a supportive visa policy, long holidays and more competitive airfares, HSBC Global Research said in its report. However, the broker believed that average GGR may come under pressure. It forecast Macau's GGR to hike about 6% YoY to about MOP238 billion in 2025, in par with the Macau government's and the market's forecasts.

In the broker’s estimation, GALAXY ENT (00027.HK) will seize more market share with the continued expansion of its Phase 3 project and the launch of Capella at Galaxy Macau in mid-2025. SANDS CHINA LTD (01928.HK) was assumed to reclaim some of its share with the completion of the second phase of The Londoner Macao in 2Q25.

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SJM HOLDINGS (00880.HK) was anticipated to garner market share with the addition of F&B services, especially in the base mass, the broker said. MGM CHINA (02282.HK), on the other hand, was expected to regain market share in 2H as it launches new products, although it lost market share in 1H from a high base. On the other hand, Melco (MLCO.US) and WYNN MACAU (01128.HK) are likely to lose market share despite their efforts to revamp their gaming areas.

HSBC Global Research preferred MGM CHINA (02282.HK) and GALAXY ENT (00027.HK), and was also bullish on SANDS CHINA LTD, both of which were rated Buy. It also trimmed its target prices for casinos by an average of 9%, lowering the target price for MGM CHINA from $17 to $16, GALAXY ENT from $51.5 to $45.5, and SANDS CHINA LTD from $24 to $23.
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