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<Research>M Stanley Sees Low Odds of US Tariffing Pharma Licensing Deals
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The US has announced a plan to impose around 100% tariffs on imported semiconductor chips, which the market views as a negative spillover effect on the upcoming pharma tariffs, according to Morgan Stanley's research report.

While the HSI stayed flat, the Hang Seng Healthcare Index fell by 3% during this morning's trading session, with companies having asset licensing potential performing particularly poorly.

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Besides profit-taking, this decline might also reflect market concerns over the impending US pharma tariffs and the negative influence linked to semiconductor tariffs.

In Morgan Stanley's estimate, however, the likelihood of tariffing payments for external licensing cooperation transactions remains relatively low.

Currently, US tariffs mainly target tangible goods with an aim to reshore production, while service-related revenues (including intellectual property transfers) receive less attention, especially given the US' service trade surplus with China.

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In addition, most transaction agreements for external licensing cooperation include granting "development" and "manufacturing" rights to global licensees. Some licensees have indicated plans to produce the approved licensed drugs in the US after obtaining approval (for example, Pfizer (PFE.US) with 3SBIO (01530.HK) for SSGJ-707).

Morgan Stanley anticipates more external licensing cooperation transactions in 2H25 and beyond, particularly among key pharma firms with deep product lines, such as HENGRUI PHARMA (01276.HK), HANSOH PHARMA (03692.HK), SINO BIOPHARM (01177.HK), and CSPC PHARMA (01093.HK).
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